Delta Air Lines: Navigating Financial Turbulence with a Focus on Premium Services (DAL, 2Q24)

Delta Air Lines is one of the largest airlines in the United States, and its financial performance gives us a good idea of the broader trends in the airline industry. This article will break down Delta’s financial results for the second quarter of the 2024 fiscal year and look ahead to what the company expects in the third quarter.

Delta Air Lines recently shared its financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, and here’s a quick breakdown of the highlights:

📈 2QFY24 Results:

  • Revenue: $15.41 billion (+5.4% YoY)
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.36 (-11.9%)
  • Premium Seat Sales: $5.63 billion (+9.7%)

While Delta met expectations, it’s facing challenges with oversupply in the industry and rising costs. Despite these hurdles, premium seat sales continue to grow, accounting for over 40% of passenger sales for the first time! 🏆

🌍 Travel Demand: Demand for air travel is high, but there’s more supply than needed. This has led to a drop in economy class fares, while premium services remain strong.

Rising Costs: Fuel costs rose by 11.8%, contributing to increased operating expenses. Delta expects continued profitability pressure but remains optimistic about improving conditions.

🚀 Looking Ahead to 3QFY24:

  • Projected Sales Growth: 2-4%
  • Adjusted EPS: $1.70-$2.00

Delta plans to increase flight capacity modestly, aiming for gradual improvement in the oversupply situation. With a strong focus on premium experiences and its ability to manage fuel costs, Delta is well-positioned to outperform competitors when the industry rebounds.

2QFY24 Review: Meeting Expectations

Revenue and Earnings

In the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024, Delta Air Lines reported sales of $15.41 billion, which is a 5.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.36, which is an 11.9% decrease. These figures met the expectations of analysts, meaning they were in line with what experts had predicted.

Impact of Oversupply and Rising Costs

Delta faced challenges from oversupply in the airline industry, which is when there are more seats available than there are passengers to fill them. This issue led to a decline in freight rates and affected the airline’s profitability.

  • Available Seat Miles (ASM): This is a measure of the airline’s supply. It was up 8.2% compared to last year.
  • Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM): This is a measure of demand. It increased by 7.3%.

The supply of seats grew faster than the demand for them, contributing to oversupply in the market.

Operating Expenses

Operating expenses for Delta increased by 8.4%, mainly due to higher costs for labor and fuel.

Premium vs. Economy Seats

  • Premium Seat Sales: These reached $5.63 billion, a 9.7% increase.
  • Economy Class Sales: These were $6.72 billion, only a 0.6% increase.

While overall sales per unit decreased compared to last year, sales per unit of premium seats actually increased. Premium seats accounted for over 40% of passenger sales for the first time.

Challenges with Economy Fares

Economy class fares saw a more significant drop compared to premium seats. Despite the high demand for air travel, the supply outstripped demand, leading to lower prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for airfares has been declining year-over-year for 15 consecutive months, with a 5.1% drop in June.

Increased Costs

Delta faced increased costs:

  • Fuel Costs: These rose by 11.8%.
  • Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM): This went up by 1.6%.
  • Non-Fuel CASM: Increased by 0.6%.

Despite high fuel prices, airlines found it challenging to pass on these costs to consumers due to the competitive environment.

Impact of the Olympics

Interestingly, demand for flights to Paris decreased due to the impact of the Olympics, which negatively affected Delta’s sales. Delta, being the U.S. airline with the most flights to Paris, expected a sales impact of about $100 million from June to August.

3QFY24 Outlook: Facing Challenges and Leveraging Advantages

Sales Growth and EPS Guidance

Looking ahead to the third quarter, Delta expects:

  • Sales Growth: Between 2% to 4%.
  • Adjusted EPS: Between $1.70 and $2.00.

These figures fall short of market expectations, which anticipated about 6% sales growth and an adjusted EPS of $2.08.

Demand and Pricing Strategy

Despite these lower-than-expected projections, Delta remains optimistic about the demand for travel. The airline’s strategy focuses on providing premium experiences, which aligns with the current consumer trend of prioritizing experiences over material goods.

Costs and Profitability

  • Fuel Costs: Expected to be between $2.60 and $2.80 per gallon, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Non-Fuel CASM: Expected to increase by 1% to 2% compared to last year.

Profitability will remain under pressure, but Delta believes the oversupply situation will improve.

Adjustments to Supply

Delta plans to increase flight operation capacity by 5% to 6% in the third quarter compared to last year. This is a slower rate than the 8% increase in the second quarter. Other airlines are also reducing their capacity increases, which should help improve the oversupply situation gradually.

Sales Per Unit

Delta anticipates that sales per unit will hit their lowest point in June and July, with an increase expected from August onwards. The airline’s stock price fell due to the challenges of oversupply and rising costs. However, Delta is expected to perform better than its competitors once the industry recovers.

Competitive Advantages

Delta has several advantages that may help it outperform other large airlines (Full-Service Carriers or FSCs):

  • Business Travel: Strong demand for business travel is a positive factor.
  • Premium Demand: The airline’s focus on premium offerings aligns with current consumer preferences.
  • Jet Fuel Procurement: Delta has the ability to procure its own jet fuel, which helps manage costs.

Delta Air Lines is navigating a challenging environment marked by oversupply and rising costs. The airline is focusing on its premium strategy and operational efficiency to maintain its competitive edge. Although the financial outlook for the third quarter is not as strong as the market had hoped, Delta’s strategic adjustments and focus on premium services position it well for future recovery. The gradual improvement in the oversupply situation and Delta’s ability to adapt could lead to stronger performance in the latter half of the year.